“No, you can’t go back to Constantinople
Been a long time gone, Constantinople
Why did Constantinople get the works?
That’s nobody’s business but the Turks…”

-They Might Be Giants – “Istanbul (Not Constantinople)”

Turkey’s been at the center of some political melodrama this week, partially of its own doing and partially in response to the increasingly impotent US Congress. Earlier this week, a U.S. Congressional committee proposed a resolution to recognize the genocide committed in 1915 by Turks in the Ottoman Empire against ethnic Armenians. This elicited an angry response from Turkey who has never acknowledge that what they did in World War I was genocide as such. Later in the week, the Turkish parliament voted to authorize sending troops into northern Iraq to deal with Kurdish rebels. This drew cautious scolding from the U.S. with President Bush saying, apparently without irony, “there’s a better way to deal with the issue than having the Turks send massive troops into the country.” These two events are apparently unrelated but mark potentially serious troubles in Turkish-American relations. Let’s look at each individually.

Today, the Armenian Genocide Resolution will be introduced to the full House of Representatives after being approved by the House Foreign Affairs committee earlier in the week. This is essentially one of the non-binding resolutions that the Pelosi House has become infamous for, officially labeling what happened in Turkey in 1915 as genocide. I’ve no idea where this is coming from and why it’s coming now. Various theories are that it’s designed to embarrass Bush, an effort to secure the Armenian votes for the Democrats or a backhanded way to get out of the Iraqi war. The most likely scenario is that it is just poor timing. The reality of the situation is that Turkey is a pretty critical way point for shipment of goods to Iraq. We need Turkey to carry on this war. Now is not the time to antagonize them over something that essentially comes down to semantics. This is not the House getting tough, this is the House being pedantic. Turkey’s response is no better. Everyone who knows their World War I history knows that the Turks that ruled the Ottoman Empire committed genocide. Those who don’t know their WWI history didn’t know that until the Turks spat the dummy this week. Both the House of Representatives and the Turkish government need to grow up or have a time out. My Political Friday posts of late may lead you to believe that I’m a right winger bashing Dems. I want to assure you that is not the case. I’m just tired of the Democrats who have power in both house of Congress failing to do anything except meaningless non-binding resolutions. I know they don’t have a veto or filibuster proof majority, well work it out. Show some leadership and get some bipartisan support. Just stop with these bullshit symbolic things and do something.

The potential invasion of Kurdistan is a bit of a messier situation. Some pundits are trying to write this as a response to the genocide resolution, but that is simply not the case – typical right wing talk radio oversimplification. This is a long and messy problem. The Turks invaded northern Iraq at least once before when Hussein was still in power and this is a long ethnic conflict between Turks and Kurds. If the Turks were to repeat that now, they put both themselves and the U.S. in a very awkward situation. Kurdistan is the only truly stable part of Iraq. A Turkish invasion of any scale would potentially change that dramatically. The Kurds have their own security forces and while a minor incursion may be overlooked, a major attack could result in a serious armed conflict. The U.S. presumably could not sit idly by while what is essentially our colony was invaded. What I find curious about this is the softly, softly response that this is getting from the Bush Administration. If Iran passed a resolution allowing them to invade Iraq how long do you think it would take for the U.S. bombers to get to Tehran?

The thing is, this war of semantics with the US Congress and threats of invasion is probably all bluster. Turkey is not likely to break off diplomatic relations with the U.S., nor goad them with a messy conflict in northern Iraq. The fact is Turkey doesn’t have a lot of friends. The Arab states have political and ethnic differences that supercede the religious similarities between their countries and thus treat Turkey with suspicion. Turkey has been trying for years to get into the European Union, but like a pimply school boy their courtship of the EU prom queen has been met with derisive lack of consideration. The U.S. has played the role of matchmaker in this pursuit, but their waning influence in Europe has done little to convince the coy EU to let the Turks in. The U.S. got Turkey into NATO, the Turks only real alliance of any consequence. Without the U.S. support and friendship, Turkey is essentially an isolated nation on the borders of Europe and Asia but a part of neither.

The leaders of Turkey are smart enough to know not to push the Americans too far. The sound and fury about the Armenian genocide resolution will continue for a while. But even if Congress manages to pass it, doubtful as that is, the Turks will ultimately just have to suck it up. The same is true for an invasion of Kurdistan, if the Turks actually risk such an incursion, the U.S. will be able to do nothing more than bluster and rant. But like the Congressional resolution, this will probably be managed before it gets to the point of a large scale invasion. The fact of the matter is that in their current political manifestations, Turkey and the U.S. are inextricably allied. Great to have friends.

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