Rematch!
By the time the dust settles in places like San Antonio, Morgantown and Jacksonville on Saturday night we’ll know who will be playing for the NCAA football National Championship. For the first time since I have been an alum of any school, one of my alma maters has a shot at playing for the crown and control their own destiny. Unfortunately, that alma mater is the University of Missouri and the Tigers destiny is a rematch Saturday night in San Antonio, Texas with the Sooners of the University of Oklahoma.
The Tigers are red hot and this year’s Cinderella team. They’ve powered their way to an 11-1 record and number one ranking behind an explosive offense and an adequate defense. They plowed their way through the Big 12 North and had marquis wins against Kansas, Illinois and Texas Tech. They’re led by junior QB and Heisman Trophy candidate Chase Daniel. The problem with this game is the 1 in that 11-1 record, a 41-31 loss in October to the aforementioned Sooners.
The Sooners are one of the blue chip programs of college football. They have nine national titles - only Notre Dame has more in the modern era - these guys know what they’re doing in the post-season. This is their sixth trip to the Big 12 Championship game and they’ve won four of their previous appearances. Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops is 96 -21 at Oklahoma and has won three Big 12 and one national championship during his tenure. OU is a program that expects to win and does so, albeit in a mind numbingly boring way. They’re professional, calculating and ruthless and are placed in the role of midnight for Missouri’s Cinderella.
Missouri has never won a national championship, has not won a Big 12 title since 1969 when they were the Big 12 minus four. They have not even been ranked number 1 since 1960. Coach Gary Pinkel has amassed a 48 - 36 record since taking the helm in Columbia in 2000 and nearly a quarter of those wins have come this season. Under Pinkel, the Tigers have had three bowl appearances losing two of them. Pinkel is 0 for 3 against the Sooners.
History is not the only thing that favors the Sooners. In their head-t0-head matchup earlier this fall in Norman, Oklahoma controlled the game in a solid win against the Tigers. To Mizzou’s credit that game was on the road and they were playing without starting tailback and 1,000 yard rusher Tony Temple. The Tigers kept the pace with the Sooners through the first three quarters, but Oklahoma dominated the fourth quarter. This is Missouri’s biggest problem - Oklahoma has more talented athletes across the board and as the game wears on, this talent is too much for them.
This year, the Tigers and Sooners are similar teams. Both are led by strong quarterbacks - the Sooners by freshman Sam Bradford who set an NCAA record for passing TDs by a freshman and Mizzou by Chase Daniel who has passed for nearly 4,000 yards on the year. Oklahoma is slightly better rushing the ball, but with tailback Tony Temple healthy, Missouri probably matches up evenly with the Sooners. The real gap is on the defensive side of the ball - the Sooners are in the top 10 in the nation rushing defense and are number 11 in total defense. Missouri, to put it simply, is not. The Tigers rely on their offense to put a huge number of points that even a mediocre defense can protect. That worked all year, except against Oklahoma.
Missouri’s best chance lies with their 12th man. Sooner fans will definitely be in San Antonio in force. That’s one of the advantages of being an elite college football program - your fans will follow you to the gates of hell or even south central Texas. Missouri’s footballteam has had limited success in the last decade and not much of a traveling fan base. If the fans show up in force in San Antone and eliminate what could otherwise feel like a home field advantage for the Sooners, then Mizzou could be in with a chance. On the bright side - Missouri is 1-0 in domes this year and I’ve just read that they have sold out their allotment of tickets to Saturday’s game. Well done fellow Mizzou alum and students - an elite program has to start somewhere!
Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see Mizzou win and not just because of loyalty to my alma mater. I think a Missouri vs. West Virginia national championship would be great for football - non-traditional powers from non-traditional conferences. I don’t think I’m alone in not wanting to see a bloated and overrated Ohio State team embarrass themselves on national TV again this year. I just fear that Oklahoma has the upper hand in this matchup and as any Mizzou fan knows through painful experience, the Tigers choke when the chips are done. It will be a high-scoring game and close but my prediction is Oklahoma 45, Missouri 42 - maybe in overtime. Here’s hoping I’m wrong!
M-I-Z…
Popularity: 18% [?]
Z-O-U
30 Nov 2007 at 4:49 pm
That was a very thorough pre-game analysis. Have you given any thought to sports writing?
30 Nov 2007 at 6:01 pm
We find your lack of faith…disturbing.
30 Nov 2007 at 6:01 pm
I agree that this will be a close game. Mizzou had the lead against OU starting the fourth quarter last time, but couldn’t capitalize on it. They made to many mistakes. The announcers during the KU game gave stats suggesting that Daniel is a 4th quarter golden boy, but I don’t think he showed that against KU - of course they were winning thus ran the ball mostly.
I think that the addition of Temple back in the line up makes Mizzou a much better team this time, giving their offense a very potent and balance attach. I agree that the defense is Mizzou’s achilles heel, but I think they will bend and not break. Pinkel has done a better job this year of learning from past mistakes. I hope he can keep up this trend. It will be a game too close to call, but I think Mizzou has a much better chance at winning it this time than last. Plus, it is at a neutral site, which is also an advantage for Mizzou.
30 Nov 2007 at 7:43 pm
Chris, Could you just remind me to whom Ohio State embarrassed themselves last year?
Anyway, Jennifer, being from Texas, hates the Okies, so she will be pulling for Mizzou too.
–Jamie
30 Nov 2007 at 8:15 pm
Jamie, I’m pretty sure that Ohio State embarrassed themselves to a little team from Florida who got spanked in Jacksonville earlier this year.
You kind of have to cheer for Mizzou unless you’re from Oklahoma - the Sooners are just sooooooo dull.
30 Nov 2007 at 8:29 pm
midnight to their cinderella…. heh heh heh
will wait with bated breath for the post game analysis.
01 Dec 2007 at 12:01 am
You’re picking Mizzou to LOSE? What kind of alum are you?
Well, I shouldn’t be too hard on you. What do you know, anyway? After all, Tony Temple is a senior, not a freshman.
01 Dec 2007 at 4:14 am
I calls them as I sees them - not blinded by loyalty. OU has a tradition of winning and, in my experience, MU has a tradition of choking. I’ll give you the Temple thing - that was an error. And as for your question of what I allegedly know - I am 7 -1 making picks on this site this season
01 Dec 2007 at 5:02 am
Speaking of seven….I’ve tagged you for a meme. I reckon you’d have 7 interesting random facts to share wouldn’t you?
01 Dec 2007 at 5:26 am
There’s just one problem with this post. The letters “LSU” did not appear in front of the word “Tigers”.
01 Dec 2007 at 9:51 am
I agree with Chris…Pinkel has done a terrible job of recruiting tradition in his 7 years. He’s been able to stock up on speed, athleticism, and game savvy, but totally ignored recruiting tradition.
It’s a good thing Georgia has lived up to their tradition of having a ton of talent, but losing just enough during the regular season to avoid playing in a national championship game.
01 Dec 2007 at 6:04 pm
All right, trash talkers (Brewer & Meyer) I’m on the record with a prediction - let’s hear yours and we’ll see who is closest!
01 Dec 2007 at 6:25 pm
41-24 MU.
01 Dec 2007 at 8:44 pm
Funny, I picked the same score as you did. Just assigned the scores to the opposite teams. See blog.
01 Dec 2007 at 11:41 pm
Well, Chris, who wouldda thunk Georgia had a better shot at the BCS championship game than Missouri after the dust settled on Sat.? Man, we need a playoff that includes the 1-12 teams with the 1-4 teams getting a bye in the first round. The Big 4 Bowl games could rotate the semi-finals and championship game in that system…
02 Dec 2007 at 6:11 am