“Bottom feeder, insincere
Prophet, lo-fi pioneer
Sell the house and go to school
Get a young girlfriend, daddy’s jewel
A change would do you good…”
-Sheryl Crow – “A Change”
My Florida absentee ballot is safely in the hands of The Royal Mail – on it’s way to the Volusia County Supervisor of Elections. This means that I’ve cast my vote before any caucus-er in Iowa or primary voter in New Hampshire. However, this year my choice in the primary will matter even less than usual because the Democratic National Committee has decided to ignore my home state in the hopes that they will go away because Florida tried to push forward their primary date.
Don’t get me wrong – I’ve actually got nothing against the Iowa and New Hampshire primacy. I like the fact that the candidates have to go door-to-door and sit in farmhouses in the middle of nowhere with Edgar and Ida talking about pork futures and maple syrup prices. I love it that someone with no money but a message that resonates with voters (e.g. Mike Huckabee) still has a decent chance against a cash swollen political machine (Mitt Romney). And certainly Florida has had some, well, problems with elections in the past. But was it really a smart political move to essentially disenfranchise from the primary process a state with 27 electoral votes in favor of two states with 11? That’s the kind of political savvy by the DNC that has insured that five of the last seven presidents have been Republicans. At least the Republicans only took away half of Florida’s delegates.
Predictions aren’t worth the bandwidth they use up, but if I had to venture a guess Edwards will probably pull out a slim victory in Iowa before collapsing in New Hampshire. Clinton and Obama will battle for the rest of the votes, though the massive Kucinich contingent may give Obama the nudge. As for the Repeat-agains, the Mighty Mitt and Huckleberry Hound will probably split about 70% of the votes with the other 30% going to the other thirty white guys running (I’m including Alan Keyes in that group).
Now that I’ve probably insulted most of Iowa, I would like to make one last pitch for Barack Obama. What the U.S. needs more than anything right now after eight years of Bush-Cheney is political overhaul. Senator Obama, with his politics of hope, represents the best vehicle for that overhaul. I’d encourage you to read this eloquent endorsement of Obama from a fellow expat. I shan’t bash Senator Clinton, there are many other people that will do that, but another Clinton presidency doesn’t represent the change the country needs. I love what John Edwards has to say, but I’m not sure it’s genuine coming from the mouth of a millionaire trial lawyer. For better or worse, the remaining Democratic contenders are not going to win the nomination. If you’re still an undecided voter – take another look at Obama.
By the time the reporters in the last press van watch the “Welcome to Iowa” sign receding in their rear view for another four years tomorrow morning, the voters of The Hawkeye State will have had a lot to say about who will be the next president of the U.S. Here’s hoping that you folks give Obama the start that he needs. However it turns out, I’m just thrilled that after the longest primary campaign ever some votes are finally going to be cast today!
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by Jessica K
03 Jan 2008 at 15:58
I hate election year. Obama is the lesser of two evils for you guys, and Huckabee the lesser of evils for us. I don’t trust a single politician out there. Plus my mom’s a die-hard Rep and my FIL is a die-hard Dem, so the pull from each of them to make Jeff and I vote their way is exhausting. Were monarchies such a bad thing? (just kidding).
I’m pretty sure it will be Obama in the Whitehouse this year, and that wouldn’t be the end of the world (unless you listen to some of the tv preachers. In their opinion he’s the anti-christ. Ha!) There are certain things (welfare reform especially) that only he could do for our country, because if anyone else did them they’d be labeled a racist. After all, George Bush hates black people.
by CDV
03 Jan 2008 at 16:13
I think there is something to be said for Monarchy!
by Jason
03 Jan 2008 at 17:05
Clearly I disagree with you on our projections for tonight’s caucus. I think Edwards is going to be hugely upset. I predict he won’t be close to Clinton and Obama and it will signal the beginning of the end for his campaign.
And in regards to your comment when you said “I like what he has to say as well and think he’s going to be an excellent Secretary of State”, why don’t you support him if you like what he has to say? Are you letting the polls and the media conglomerations dictate how you vote?
by CDV
03 Jan 2008 at 17:11
Nope – I like what Obama has to say and what he represents better. We need some new blood and Biden certainly ain’t that. Plus, I have never forgiven Biden for the plagiarism thing that came out in the 1988 campaign – never thought of him as an honest guy since then.
by alice
03 Jan 2008 at 17:45
I agree that there is nothing wrong with starting the process with some very well-informed, snowed-in people in small, rural states (it’s nice, once in a while, to take our focus off of the big cities). I also agree that the process is still pretty screwed up.
If I were in charge, I’m not sure how I’d go about fixing things, but I’d start with two things: 1) IRV; and 2) I’d quit using taxpayer funds (via primaries and caucuses paid for local election commissions) to subsidize the two-party system. Let the parties pay for their own candidate selection processes.
Of course, since the two parties control the process, I’m a bit of a windmill tilter — both of these suggestions would weaken their grip on power, so they’d never sign off on them…
by alice
03 Jan 2008 at 17:52
Oh, yeah! I also meant to say that I like Obama too. For me, it’s between him and Edwards, and they’re in a tight race for my support. If I voted today, I’d cast my ballot for Edwards, but who knows how I’ll feel in another month, when I’ll actually be casting my ballot.
I’ll be very happy to support either in November. I’m thrilled to finally have more than one good choice, as I often feel like I’m choosing amongst the lesser evils (and in that respect, I feel very sorry for Republicans this year — it’s pretty slim pickens over there!).
by Jason
03 Jan 2008 at 17:54
If the worst thing that can be dug up on Biden is that he didn’t quote someone in one speech in 1988 (while he did in all the others), well then we just might have the cleanest candidate we’ve ever had. Give Obama 30+ years in politics. I’m sure he won’t keep that squeaky-clean image. But he just might actually get some EXPERIENCE.
by CDV
03 Jan 2008 at 19:01
I think it’s a question of basic honesty. I would just like to see an honest man or woman in the Oval Office again. I know it didn’t work out spectacularly last time (Carter), but I think it’s worth another try. For me, honesty trumps “experience” this time around. Plus, I think the whole “experience” argument is an artificial one. No amount of time in the Senate prepares you to be The Decider.
by maryt/theteach
03 Jan 2008 at 19:39
Chris, you’ve helped me move closer to voting for Obama “I would just like to see an honest man or woman in the Oval Office again.”
by KathyF
03 Jan 2008 at 20:02
Chris, I’ve been looking closely at the polls, especially that DMR poll that put Obama 6 pts ahead of Clinton, and I think it’s more legit than the earlier disbelief would have it. Lately, the polls have been down for Obama, but have crept back up to where they would have been if people hadn’t left for the holidays. (There’s a good argument that more Obama supporters were traveling for the holidays, as you were.) And the DMR poll is the most trusted out there, and also is somewhat influential.
Anyway, I will cautiously call it for Obama, with Edwards second. But I am planning to place a pillow over my head and hope for the best, having had disappointment more times than not in political campaigns.
And the worst thing anyone can say about Biden isn’t that he’s a plagiarizer, it’s that he’s in the pockets of the credit card industry. Being from Delaware he receives a huge part of his contributions from MNBA.
by Jason
03 Jan 2008 at 20:02
Ok, I can respect the argument for honesty in the White House. And so far, Obama meets that requirement, although I do believe that Biden is quite a respectable guy too.
I don’t like hearing the “new blood” argument though, becuase that hasn’t worked out too well recently. That was certainly the argument for George W., and to some degree Bill Clinton as well (though I was only 15 when Bill was elected, so my knowledge is a little blurry there).
by Jason
03 Jan 2008 at 20:07
I’m no expert here on where campaign contributions come from. I’m sure ALL candidates have the hands of corporations in their pockets, and that’s just the reality of modern politics. There’s no way that Biden is worse than other candidates. He hasn’t raised a significant FRACTION of what the others have.
The question is how much these candidates would owe these corporations upon their election. Since Biden struggles to raise even a million dollars, I doubt that he’d have much of a price to pay back. I’m not saying Obama would either. From what I understand, he’s raised quite a bit of cash from individual donors too. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for some other candidates. I realize that I’ve been coming off as anti-Obama and this isn’t the case. He’d be my second choice. I just wish he had more experience.
by CDV
03 Jan 2008 at 20:20
This is a great site about sources of campaign contributions:
http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp
Some of my favorites:
-Big Oil – Giuliani
-Pharma – Clinton (closely followed by Obama and Romney)
-Tobacco – Giuliani
-Gambling – Giuliani
-Lobbyists – Clinton
-Insurance – (strangely) Dodd
So, Giuliani gets the sin buck!
by Jason
04 Jan 2008 at 07:18
Ouch. That hurt tonight. I’m having second thoughts about this caucus thing. I never thought that Biden stood a chance in Iowa, but I was hoping for a better performance. How could the 3 most qualified candidates (Richardson, Biden and Dodd) not get a collective 5%???? Are Iowans so blinded by the media’s portrayal of the top 3, or is that 15% viability thing a load of crap? Right now, I’m leaning towards the latter option.
by Jason
04 Jan 2008 at 07:19
Oh yeah, and I’m 100% on the Obama bandwagon now.
by KathyF
04 Jan 2008 at 10:15
Good morning in Oxford! We won!
And welcome aboard, Jason. Yes, it’s that viability thing. Although I’ve decided, graciously, to forgive Iowa for her wicked past deeds, it’s still a fruity way to choose a nominee.
by CDV
04 Jan 2008 at 10:52
Well done Iowa!
by Sinead
04 Jan 2008 at 11:28
How long is it going to take Jason to change his facebook picture?
by Jason
04 Jan 2008 at 15:14
About as long as it took Sinead to actually post a facebook picture. I’m still a big fan of Biden. Its just unfortunate that the 15% viability thing pretty much sunk him and any other old white guy in the democratic party.
And I have to SERIOUSLY question the caucus process. Check out this link and tell me…what the heck is the Harold and Kumar guy doing at one of the caucuses? I have trouble believing he’s from Iowa.
http://wisc.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=512026972399&oid=2204489110
I do hope that Obama can keep it going because if Clinton or Edwards gets the nomination, I’m afraid I’d have to do the “lesser of two evils” voting process yet again.
by Nathan B.
04 Jan 2008 at 16:52
Jason, I’m sorry to say it wasn’t the 15% viability that sunk Biden/Dodd/Richardson…it was that they didn’t collectively had little support.
Chris, I’d give you a detailed description about my caucus experience, but I am typing by candlelight and the horse on a treadmill generating the electricity to power my computer is getting tired. I should also get busy milking the cows and churning butter.
by Matthew
04 Jan 2008 at 19:08
It seems that Biden, Richardson, and Dodd have trouble “connecting” with the majority of the people. It has very little to do with experience or what their political platform is. For example, if I ask my father why he hates Hillary Clinton so much, he’ll say “I don’t know, there is just something about her I don’t trust.” Yes, yes, I know, it is a piss poor excuse on how to decide to vote or not to vote on someone.
In other words, for most of Americans (I believe) it has more to do how people perceive the candidates presence on T.V., more so than on substance. It is some sort of psychology that takes place that I don’t understand.
by maryt/theteach
04 Jan 2008 at 20:56
Chris, Obama did it!
Listen to his victory speech and read the text on my blog: http://workofthepoet.blogspot.com
by Jason
04 Jan 2008 at 22:59
Nathan, I’m not quite sure what you’re trying to say, but I guess I should clarify what I was trying to say. My hope, and that of other Biden supporters, was not that he’d win Iowa. That wasn’t going to happen. My hope was that he could get a strong enough showing, 4th place and not too distant from 3rd place, that people would start to take notice. And this gets me to something I should add to Matt’s point.
I’m not sure if Biden et al have the same problem connecting with people as Hillary does with half of the country. Everyone knows who Hillary is. I wonder how many people actually know who Joe Biden is. It’s been an unfortunate observation of mine that MANY people ask me “who’s that?” when I mention that I support Biden, or at least something like “oh, I don’t know anything about him”. He didn’t have the coverage. I’m sure it was obvious that the media paid attention to Obama, Clinton, and Edwards at the expense of other democratic candidates. I don’t know how much the lower tier of candidates didn’t connect with people, but rather perhaps that they didn’t have the opportunity to connect with people.
That being said, I’m feeling stronger about Obama these days. I hope he gets the nomination, and I hope he picks a running mate that can compliment Obama’s new ideas with some experience in foreign policy. Going to kindergarten in a foreign country, or whatever grade it was, does not count as foreign policy.
by CDV
04 Jan 2008 at 23:26
Get them bessies milked, Brewer, and give your mule a whippin’ cause I’d love to hear about the Caucus from an insiders POV!
by Nathan B.
05 Jan 2008 at 02:32
On a side note, that pic of Romney was taken during his visit of Pioneer a couple months ago. I had a chance to here him speak when he was here. I was not impressed. He didn’t seem interested in us, but was more interested in getting his talking points out to the crowd.