Well, I just got my e-mail from Barack*, we’re apparently on a first name basis, four hours after the story broke in the media. I’m thrilled to see Joe Biden join the ticket, absolutely thrilled. I know that he brings a bit of baggage with him and that, with 3o some odd years in the Senate, he dampens the Change® message. But Biden’s a terrier and right now Obama needs a terrier.

Because something is not going according to plan in the Obama campaign.  In the most recent generic polls, in which respondents are asked whether they would vote for a Republican or Democrat for President, the Democrat leads by 10. In the most recent daily tracking polls, Obama leads McCain by no more than three points. This is a discrepancy that’s been troubling me since Obama secured the nomination. The Democratic nominee has led McCain by as much as 7 points, but tends to hover around 45%. McCain is creeping up and in some recent daily tracking polls has surpassed Obama.

I know that polls in the summertime are about as reliable as British weather forecasting, but something doesn’t add up. Admittedly, up until the end of last week, McCain had been bashing Obama around quite a lot without much response. Obama spent a week on vacation, completely yielding the stage to McCain. Maybe that’s why McCain is catching up a bit, but what I find more disturbing is that if the election were held today, a generic Democrat wins by ten and the specific Democrat ties at best. I’m not the only one to wonder that, the pundits have been mashing numbers and waving hands and have come up with all sorts of ‘gaps’:

  • The gender gap – stubborn Clintonistas that haven’t come into the party fold. In other words, they would vote for a generic Democrat if that Democrat was specifically Hillary Clinton.**
  • The experience gap – McCain’s decades of public service, makes him stronger than the generic Republican. Similarly, Obama’s less than a decade in national office makes him weaker.
  • The foreign policy gap – with uncertainty in the Caucuses and Middle East, voters are flocking to military man McCain. Because, you know, foreign policy equals war.
  • The attack gap – McCain’s campaign is charging forward, arrows flying like a mob of Hun horsemen. They’ve tried every possible avenue of attack and have found a few that hurt.

All of these probably have something to do with the differences in these polls. But, increasingly, I’m beginning to fear that the real gap is a darker and unsurmountable one. I’m beginning to think that the gap that is hurting Obama is the skin color gap.  Consistently, in polls, a huge majority of Americans (76% in the most recent) say that the country is ready for a black president (or a woman for that matter). That’s both predictable and suspicious. For one thing, the phrasing of the question is tricky. Pollsters are not asking the respondents if they are ready for a black president. Only the most blatant of racists would admit, to a stranger, over the phone that they were unwilling to put a black man in the White House. But, occasionally in this election cycle, hard numbers have belied these whitewashed polls. The discrepancy between the polls in the New Hampshire primary and the results, for example, has been attributed to the so called “Bradley Effect” by a number of pundits. More disturbing and less contentious, however, are the results in West Virginia exit polls, in which 22% of respondents said race was important in their decision between Clinton and Obama. Of those 22%, 82% voted for Clinton. If 22% admitted to being driven by race, how many felt the same way but didn’t admit it?

And the answer to that question is what I’m worried about. Has Obama reached a glass ceiling of his own? When I first heard Obama, at the 2004 Democratic conveniention, I was blown away by his oratory. At that time, I thought that Obama was a rising star in the party but that his race, and more particularly, his name would keep him out of the oval office. I’ve been surprised and thrilled to see him get to the spot he is today – just days away from accepting the Democratic Party’s nomination. It’s been an amazing year in American politics and one that makes me proud of my country. But what if I was right in 2004, what if Obama can’t get past that 45% number. What if there is a enough of a minority of Americans to turn an election who are still so riddled with bigotry that they can’t fathom the idea of a black man in the White House.

I realize that there are scores of reasons that a person wouldn’t vote for Obama that have nothing to do with race. If you’re a Republican and have reasoned policy differences with the Illinois senator, then I have no problem with you. If Obama is a bit too conservative for your taste, I respect that and Nader is running again this year. If you really believe that Obama doesn’t have ample experience for the job, despite the fact that many that have come before him had even less, then fair enough.

If you’re not voting for Obama because his middle name is Hussein, or because he lived in Indonesia then I have a big problem with you. If you won’t vote for Obama because “you can’t relate with him culturally” or because of the church that he went to, then I have a big problem with you. When it becomes, at any level, about the color of Barack Obama’s skin, then you are not making an intelligent, well informed decision. You’re making a decision based on hatred. If you’re one of those 22% of West Virginians, you made a bigoted decision. More importantly, if you, even deep down, agree with them, you are a racist.

Similarly, I don’t think that voting for Obama solely because of his race is legitimate. Again the problem, the fear, the anxiety that is with me is the difference between the number of people who would like to see a Democrat in the White House and the number of people that would like to see this Democrat in the White House.

America is at such a thrilling place historically. We’re primed to finally resolve over two hundred years of slavery, segregation, lynchings, Jim Crow, and racial hatred. We’re at the doorstep of a colorblind society. And I hope that I’m wrong about this. I hope that the fickle summertime polls bear no relation to reality and that the number of people that refuse to vote for Obama because of his skin color are restricted to a few stubborn Klaverns and 22% of West Virginia. Because the election of Barack Obama could be a turning point in American history – like the rise of JFK in 1960 and the Reagan revolution in 1980, but moreso.

The last two presidential elections have not gone the way I had hoped. In 2000, I was confused after the presidential election results finally came in. In 2004 I was angry. 2008 can still go either way. If Obama becomes that generic Democrat, I’ll be able to walk around my adopted foreign home with pride in my country again – a pride that’s been hard to drum up in the last eight years. If Obama has indeed hit that glass ceiling, if he does come in around 45% and loses to McCain, I’ll just feel very, very sad and a little bit ashamed.

———————-

*Started writing this on Sunday morning, but free time is at a premium these days. Daily tracking polls remain about the same as then.

** For those of you saying to yourself, “See, I told you Obama couldn’t get elected”, I firmly believe that Clinton would be having the same problem with a subset of voters that couldn’t handle a woman in the Oval Office.

———————–

“The Best of U2 1980 – 1990″ is available from U2 - The Best of 1980 - 1990.

 
icon for podpress  U2 - "Pride (In the Name of Love)" [3:50m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download

Popularity: 48% [?]