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“Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” -Aaron Levenstein
I am a dedicated carnivore. Vegetables are cute and all and make the plate look real pretty, but I see no need for them beyond decoration. Potatoes are a bit like Styrofoam packing peanuts – they serve as good filler. But the meat is the essence of any meal that graces A Free Man’s table. In my opinion, Vegetarianism resides in the same neighborhood as other deviant beliefs like Republicanism and Fundamental Religiosity – I recognize that it exists, but have no interest in visiting.*
So, you may imagine that I followed the latest flurry of “RED MEAT KILLS YOU” headlines with some alarm. After all, in my late 30’s, I’m trying to live a relatively healthy lifestyle. I’ve quit smoking. Again. I don’t do drugs or participate in other risky behaviors. I’m a Dad, I want to be healthy as my kids grow up.
But my response was more annoyance than alarm. I have very few unhealthy pleasures these days – a fat rare steak is one of them. Now I’m being told I can’t have that?
Bastards.
But then I remembered – I’m a scientist. I happen to know that the lay press is painfully unqualified to report scientific results in most cases. I have access to the primary literature. Let’s take a look at what these killjoys have come up with this time.
Unbiased observation, that’s what I’m all about.
The study, published in Archives of Internal Medicine by a group of researchers at the National Cancer Institute, looked at the levels of red meat, ‘white’ meat and processed meat consumption as risk factors for death. They used a cohort of over 500,000 volunteers between 50 and 71 years of age. The volunteers were men and women from six American states who agreed to fill out a food diary of their typical consumption over the preceding 12 months. When one of the volunteers died, they were placed into a group based on the amount of red, white or processed meat that they consumed. The researchers were asking whether or not high intake of different types of meat increased the risk of death in general or death by cardiovascular disease or cancer specifically.
The researchers compile the questionnaire data and then get out the statistics software. If there is one thing that scientists can use to befuddle the general public – and often other scientists – it’s statistics. As it has been said, facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable. The NCI researchers rely on something called Cox proportional hazards regression models to estimate the relative risk of, in this case, dietary behavior.
Using the statistical analysis, the group reports that ‘red and processed meat intakes were associated with modest increases in total mortality, cancer mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality’, a result that inspired world-wide banner headlines at the end of last month. If you look a bit closer at their data, however, things aren’t so cut and dried.
The biggest issue is that this is a statistical association. In their, admittedly very large, sample population there is a slight association between a higher level of red meat in the diet and mortality. There is no evidence, and the group makes no claim, that eating red meat causes early death, cancer or heart disease. The researchers haven’t attempted to determine a biological cause for their findings. Therefore, a causal link between red meat and cancer or heart disease has not been established in this study or in any previous work for that matter. Despite what you may have read in the newspaper or seen on the TV, this report does not provide a shred of evidence that eating red meat causes cancer.
I’m not a statistician – thank goodness. I’ve had a couple of stats classes, both of which served to confuse me more than anything else, so I’m ill equipped to quibble with their data. That’s never stopped me before, however, and it shan’t stop me now.
The researchers state that they adjusted for other factors that may affect their results including smoking, physical activity, age, education, marital status, family history of cancer, race, body mass index and many other factors. However, the data that 
they present in support of the hypothesis that a high intake of red meat increases the risk of mortality includes variation in these factors. For example, they state that “subjects who consumed more red-meat tended to be married…white…more likely a current smoker, have a higher body mass index, and have a higher daily intake of energy, total fat and saturated fat, and they tended to have lower education and physical activity levels”. In other words, in this study, people who eat a lot of red meat tend to be fat, lazy, white, smokers. And they had an overall increased risk of cancer and cardiovascular disease? Really?
More indicative of a design flaw, however, is the result that in addition to a higher risk of heart disease and cancer, men who eat a lot of red meat had “an increased risk associated with death from injuries”. Basically, the group classified as highest consumers of red meat had an increased risk of death due to all causes tested. At this point, I realized that their analysis was skewed – that there are inherent errors in study design. Again, I’m not a statistician, but I am a biologist and this category ‘death from injuries’ by all common sense should have been equal across all of their groups. The fact that one of the groups shows an increased risk indicates to me either that this group takes part in riskier activities in general (and the data hasn’t been properly normalized) or that the model is, in scientific terms, fucked. Either way, I’m skeptical of the results.
The take home message? Take from it what you will. This isn’t the first study to suggest that there may be a link between red meat and some types of cancer and cardiovascular disease. They tend, like this one, to be ambiguous.
Me, I’m going to fire up the grill.
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*I’ve always said that I’ll respect Boy Z’s decisions as he grows up. I’ll love him if he comes home one day and tells me that he’s a transgender, royalist, sheep shagger. He’s still my son. But if he ever comes home claiming that he’s a vegetarian then he’s out of the family.
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This track by Jim Lauderdale comes from the excellent three disc compilation ‘Song of America‘. It features covers of traditional American songs by contemporary artists and is available from eMusic.
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Sure, you’re right in liking meat…
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You have been watching the commercials on Aussie tv with sam what’s his name about how good red meat is for you hey?
suzers last blog post..Things I Said I’d Do Next Year
Did you ever think that maybe “death from injuries” is code for “the local beef cows got together and stampeded over his ass until he was dead”? Hm?
I seriously reconsidered my long-term vegetarianism when I actually had to work with cattle. I hate cows. But I still won’t eat them.
Theresa Bs last blog post..Rules of Engagement
Suzer – I can’t abide Aussie TV. It does my head in. I watch a lot of videos. And the occasional movie on TV.
Theresa – Uh oh, I’m going to get the hackles of my vegetarian readers up.
Aw, eat the cows. Just eat ‘em.
Anyway, you should know: all great chefs hate vegetarians!
heathers last blog post..I am a thief.
Honestly, I don’t care if other people eat meat. I still think a good steak smells really good. I accept the fact that the “vegetarian” options on the menu at most restaurants will have beef stock or bonito flakes.
I just wish more chefs would see creating tasty vegetarian meals as a challenge, instead of just using a larger portion of the bland side dish.
But back to the (other) topic at hand — my latest pastime is to find out what journal (if any!) the research is being published in. It’s often a huge tip-off.
Theresa Bs last blog post..Rules of Engagement
Theresa – That’s a fun game. This one is Archives of Internal Medicine, which is a JAMA journal. Pretty good one.
If you’re reduced to publishing your work in the Journal of Bangladeshi Psychiatry and Podiatry (okay, I totally made that one up, but there are equally ridiculous journals out there), it’s time to stop.
For a long time I kept a copy of an article that was published (in English) in a third-rate journal. The English was so bad that I couldn’t figure out what the authors’ conclusions were. And yet that paper was referenced in a bunch of other articles because it was the only thing published that mentioned that specific subject. Crazy!
Theresa Bs last blog post..Rules of Engagement
You sound like MrC. He wouldn’t mind the sexual orientation or occupation or political and religious beliefs of his child if he had one, but he would disown them if they were vegetarian. Or didn’t like cricket. Heaven knows what he’d do if he hated meat AND cricket…
SSGs last blog post..A random assortment of thoughts.
Of course you’re a meat eater! You’re from the southern part of the United States. We’re meat eaters by nature. Yeah yeah, occasionally one of us goes crazy and does something stupid like swear off meats. But generally, we like our cow.
I want you to start researching every single food they start this crap with. Eggs are good, they’re killers, they’re good again. Red meat kills. Sugar is good, it’s natural. It’s bad. It’s good again. Blah blah blah. If we listened to every single report that comes out, there is absolutely no way to be a responsible parent and feed your kids a healthy diet.
Angels last blog post.."I would love to coach there someday… " (but I’m not wearing those damn flipflops)
My beef consumption spikes dramatically in the summer months. It’s the grill! I can’t keep away!
When I was living in Manhattan, I use to run with a pretty diverse crowd. One was a vegetarian. Every time she would join us for dinner we had to eat at a vegetarian restaurant to accommodate her. I’ve never had such bland, unsatisfying food.
The Unbearable Banishments last blog post..feeding my addiction
Your last statement about Boy Z made me laugh out loud. Hubby and I try to get grass-fed buffalo for both health reasons (less cholesterol than chicken) and humane reasons (a lot are raised outdoors). But that didn’t stop me from ordering a rare steak at a restaurant while everyone else ordered chicken or veggie. I guess my baby wanted meat, real meat.
pingers last blog post..Belly Update
I’m picturing all meat eaters as unemployed Marlboro men right now.
Also, I tried to email you a response to the comment you left but it bounced back to me. Here it is:
It’s so silly, isn’t it? I want to run away to escape this nutsy
Evangelical movement that has happened here over the past decade. Remember
the WWJD mindset of the 90s? When everyone was okay with everyone ’cause
Jesus was down with whatevs?
I miss that.
loras last blog post..ancestor worship.
Well, I dunno, that saturated fat thing you mentioned kinda implicates beef a little.
But I’ll have a t-bone, well done, please.
Laras last blog post..The Line Between Heaven & Hell
My fav-o-rite presentation in grad school included statistical results of a study showing that junkies who are 10+ years into recovery are healthier than non-junkies in all areas (mental and physical health, financial stability, emotional stability, family relationships, marital/relationship stability, career and education, etc…) I never revealed I am myself a recovering addict and it made me want to do a little happy dance to see the faces of those who spoke of addicts as, and I quote, “…worse than child molesters in their ability to be treated”.
Who knows about statistics, right? I just know I loved them in that moment.
I think I will dig that presentation out and go make some people listen to it.
I’ll do that, you go fire up that grill!
mongoliangirls last blog post..Darkness; pretty, pretty darkness
I love it!! Go fire up the grill, indeed. Fix some for me. I love me a good steak.
Teris last blog post..Feeling the Love
I gave up red meat because my doctor told me to. I have cholesterol issues, so for me, giving up red meat is less about depriving myself of joy and more about preventing myself from dying of a heart attack before I’m 40. I also want to stay off cholesterol medication as long as possible, and this is the most effective way to do that, at least according to my doctor. Plus, there’s the negative environmental impact of eating beef and blah blah blah, but I think it’s OK in moderation.
I wasn’t a huge steak eater before, but I don’t really miss it anymore.
courtneys last blog post..Sometimes You’ve Just Gotta Jig
“an increased risk associated with death from injuries”
Well it’s obvious. Red meat makes you stupid as well.
Come on AFM, get out of Egypt!!! Take one look at Mr Arizaphale and see what red meat will do to you!!!!!!!!
arizaphales last blog post..Happy Birthday Little Sis!!!!
Stats class ruined my goddamn life, and basically destroyed any desire I had to do anything. It ripped out my soul and stapled it to the wall, and then ridiculed the crap out of it for an entire semester.
It made me drop out of grad school. Seriously.
Oh, and, um…go meat.
rassless last blog post..The City of New Orleans: A Killer Combination
“transgender, royalist, sheep shagger”
Lovely.
chriss last blog post..She
Something has got to kill you right? If that’s gonna be red meat, then so be it. I wouldn’t trade it for another few years of vegetarian existence.
Brittanys last blog post..Fiesta Quinoa with Cumin-Lime Vinaigrette
I wrote something similar to this back when the news first came out. My version wasn’t as convincing as yours, but I think I came to many of the same conclusions, although I also included a bit of “Who cares”. Honestly, unless you’re eating nothing but processed carbohydrates, sugars, and fried foods, modern medical technology is going to keep you alive longer than your grandparents with few exceptions. These “shorten your life” studies usually involve years in the single digits and often closer to one than 10. Not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things.
Jacobs last blog post..The Hilarity of a Small Town
It’s really sad that you have to be familiar with statistics to know when the press is giving you a plate of bullshit to chow down on. I’m no statistician either, and anyone in their right mind would read “Want to live longer? cut back on red meat” as being causal. Most people don’t have a clue of the difference between causal and associational variables, let alone are they able to know the methodological problems you could identify on first glance. CNN need to get some editors that can determine the difference, for fuck’s sake. A Stats 101 and Research Methods 101 class would do the trick, at least letting them know how to edit their damn headlines.
Man we’re fucked if we depend on these people to tell us what’s going on out there. They don’t know their heads from their asses.
bluestreaks last blog post..Half-assery/sorry Rasslery and an update on the job front
Great post, but I fall into the “so what if they’re right” camp. So eating tasty foods might knock a year or two off your life – a year or two at the end when you are probably in nursing home, pissing through a tube, shitting in an adult diaper, and watching day-time TV. I’ll take my rib-eyes (grass fed with no hormones or antibiotics) and just drink lots of red wine to counteract the fat.
That said, there are lots of good reasons to be a vegetarian – I am a non-practicing vegetarian myself–such as environmental costs of cattle production, cruelty to animals (not killing them, but farming them industrially), and global food supply issues. But diet and concerns about life span are simply misguided.
Despite my best efforts, my cholesterol remains amazingly low. Husbands trends to around 200–so a little higher than optimum. Our solution is to just cook one nice ribeye (my fave cut) and halve it. It really is plenty of food.
Here In Franklins last blog post..A cat’s gotta do what a cat’s gotta do
‘you can use statistics to prove anything Kent. 98% of people know that’. Sorry, I promised myself no more Simpson quotes.
The world’s great salvation for dedicated, Australian, carnivors like us: Kangaroo. Low in fat. Low in cholesterol. Lower environmental impact too. In fact I had kangaroo steak sandwiches for dinner just last night. They were deeeeeelicious.
kittys last blog post..
We had a family nearby us who kept guinea pigs. A rather large number of them. The prevalent scent in the neighborhood during summers was burnt hair. My girlfriend had a rather hard time explaining that one to her kids.
I may be cautious about certain things, but give me a steak any day. One of my downfalls in Sweden was the thinly sliced steak with Bearnaise to dip and rusti potatoes washed down with a quart of red. And don’t you know I keep a stash of Bearnaise on hand for just such occasions as we can afford it.
Hells Yes! God made the soft, furry creatures so that we could eat them. Ditto for pigs. Actually, especially for pigs. You know you want to fly over here and get some Fat Matt’s Rib Shack, don’t you? It’s not far from my new office. We could totally go, you know. Just down the street. On Piedmont. See you soon.
Muskrats last blog post..it is finished
I have cholesterol issues, too, but I’ll be damned if I am going to give up red meat. Can’t do it. Won’t do it. I will eat more fish etc., do other healthy things.
Also, the higher rate of deaths from injuries could be from 1) attacks from militant vegans and/or 2) grilling accidents.
Juds last blog post..And then it was Thursday
As for the journalist part of it, I honestly don’t know how much of it is journalists trying to make it sound more exciting and how much of it is journalists just not having a good grasp of the subject matter. After all, a lot of journalists were drawn to their college major as much for the lack of required math and science classes as they were by the glamor and glitz of beat reporting.
Honestly, every journalism major should be required to study extensively in science, history, religion, and political science and not just journalism and English.
Jacobs last blog post..The Hilarity of a Small Town
Really, isn’t this (as with most things that are “bad” for us) just a question of moderation?
I have way too many food issues to even begin a comment on this one. But Arizaphale’s comment is very funny.
Jill/Twipply Skwoods last blog post..Voted Least Likely to Become an Alcoholic
i love steak, i really do, but it doesn’t taste nearly as good as it used to when i was a kid living in the midwest.
that said, i think the better reason these days to forgo red meat is the environmental one. have you ever read “the omnivore’s dilemma”? i’d be curious what you think of it.
@jacob–i was a journalism major and actually, at least half of my classes were non-journalism related, including history, poly sci, and philosophy (i took a lot of philosophy). i think i even took an econ class. you’re right about avoiding math and science, though. : )
mjrcs last blog post..Contrast Podcast Asks, How Would You Like Your Eggs?
I loved the Omnivore’s Dilemma, the book was awesome.
chriss last blog post..Oh the Humanity
Theresa – Goes to show you that you can get any shoddy piece of research published if you’re desperate enough. Or know someone at PNAS.
SSG – Yeah, Zach has to be a Georgia Bulldogs fan as well. But I thought that went without saying.
Angel – I think the real issue is that humans are omnivores. We need a balanced diet, if you eat too much of anything at the expense of something else you’ll end up buggered.
TUB – You occasionally run across decent vegetarian food, but it’s usually just as bad for you as any non-vegetarian food.
Ping – Your baby is obviously going to be a carnivore!
Lora – Wonder why it balanced. See if I can sort that out.
Lara – The problem is that they’ve not normalized for saturated fat among other things. So is it saturated fat from red meat, saturated fat from processed meats or saturated fat from Twinkies? No way of knowing.
Mongola – Great story!
Teri – Come on over. Beef is cheap and good in Oz.
Courtney – I haven’t had my cholesterol checked in ages. Maybe I should…
Arizaphale – Oy! Are you calling me thick?
Rassles – I can see how that could happen. I nearly dropped mine in grad school. I think I got a C, which is kind of shocking for a Ph.D. student.
Chris – Vegetarian!
Brittany – You’re invited over for a BBQ as well.
Jacob – I forgot about that post! You’re actually the one who inspired me to read the primary literature.
Bluestreak – I know. I don’t fully understand the stats that they’ve used here, but my Stats 201 helps me realize that there’s something BOGUS going on.
Jamie – What the hell is a non-practicing vegetarian? A guilty liberal?
HIF – Congrats!
Kitty – I love kangaroo – rare on the grill. Dr. O’C won’t eat it though, something about Skippy the Bush Kangaroo?
NATUI – What do you reckon a guinea pig tastes like?
Muskrat – Next time I’m in Hotlanta it’s a date, baby.
Jud – Grilling accidents! That’s it!
Jacob – I think journalists just need more specialization – like doctors. If you’re going to cover health and science then take some science classes.
Nathan – What’s this ‘moderation’ that you speak of? You can tell you’re a midwesterner.
Jill – Fair enough.
MJRC – I know all the environmental reasons. I know. But you know, I try and do all the right things, can I not have one eco vice?
My maternal grandfather spent his retirement as a gentleman farmer. And he raised beef cattle. Which meant we ate red meat all the friggin’ time. And to this day I still love it and will never be able to completely give up red meat. If it kills me? Oh, well. My shower could kill me but I’m certainly not going to give up feeling clean.
Coal Miner’s Granddaughters last blog post..Softly
I didn’t eat meat for 12 years of my life. Then one day I smoked something I shouldn’t have ate about 12 Big Mac’s (yes I know poor excuse for meat) and haven’t turned back since. I love it! Steak especially, and anything over Medium Rare isn’t worth eating.
I say keep eating. We all have to die of something!
Katie Laurens last blog post..Long time me no write shit you read
Dude, red meat better be ok, I just bought 60# of it from the local market to fill up the chest freezer.
Joe @ Irrational Dads last blog post..The Pain No Parent Can Prepare For
I think Pythagorus needs to have a talk with you.
KathyFs last blog post..Brains, Brawn, and Buckingham Palace
CMGD – Or your car. Or a rattler. You gotta live.
Katie – I was a vegetarian for about a year in college and, through similar circumstances as you, ate a hot dog. I think hot dogs are nasty, but I’ve eaten meat since.
Joe – Mmmmm. Sixty pounds of meat.
Kathy – Pythagoras? The Greek mathematician? Why?
When the media uses statistical information to manipulate and scare people, it infuriates me. Like you said, it doesn’t prove causality. I love red meat, and the best kind for you is grass-fed organic. That stuff actually helps prevent cancer.
Gwens last blog post..The Bridge
[...] A Free Man added an interesting post on How in the world can a poor man eat?Here’s a small excerpt“Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.” – Aaron Levenstein I am a dedicated carnivore. Vegetables are cute and all and make the plate look real pretty, but I see no need for them beyond decoration. Potatoes are a bit like Styrofoam packing peanuts – they serve as good filler. But the meat is the essence of any meal that graces A Free Man’s table. In my opinion, Vegetarianism resides in the same neighborhood as other deviant beliefs like [...]